Currently on the ESPN website, there are 18 predictions for the outcome of the NBA Finals series between the Miami Heat and the San Antonio Spurs. Earlier in the week, there were two other predictions posted that have since been bumped. Here are all the predictions as well as the records of the experts so far in the first fourteen series match-ups.
Full time
Haberstroh: (14 predictions, 74.3%) Heat in 7
Elhassan: (14 predictions, 72.9%) Spurs in 6
Wallace: (14 predictions, 72.1%) Heat in 7
Pelton: (14 predictions, 70.7%) Heat in 7
Adande: (14 predictions, 70.0%) Heat in 7
Arnovitz: (14 predictions, 70.0%) Heat in 7
Windhorst: (14 predictions, 67.1%) Heat in 7
Guttierrez: (14 predictions, 66.4%) Heat in 6
Abbott: (14 predictions, 65.0%) Heat in 7
Stein: (14 predictions, 62.1%) Spurs in 6
The strong consensus of the people who haven't missed a chance to predict for the entire playoff series is the Heat will win Game 7 and become the champions. Looking at the percentages, I am not filled with confidence they actually know what will happen.
Almost full time
Legler: (12 predictions, 88.3%) Spurs in 6
Ford: (13 predictions, 84.6%) Heat in 7
Thorpe: (11 predictions, 76.4%) Heat in 6
Barry: (13 predictions, 64.6%) Heat in 7
Palmer: (12 predictions, 64.6%) Heat in 7
I put Legler's and Ford's numbers in bold because they are head and shoulders the best predictors so far. If I was grading on straight percentages they would be looking at B+ and B, and grading in comparison to the rest of the class they deserve As.
And they are pointing in the opposite directions.
Prediction is hard, especially about the future.
Part timers
McMenamin: (1 prediction, 70%) Heat in 6
Doolittle: (5 predictions, 68.0%) Heat in 6
Shelburne: (3 predictions, 66.7%) Spurs in 6
Broussard: (8 predictions, 62.5%) Heat in 6
Torres: (2 predictions, 0.0%) Spurs in 6
I put the rest of the predictors in out of completeness sake. This group does not inspire much confidence.
Notice that no one predicts a blowout. A six or seven game series is what to expect between evenly matched teams. A four game sweep is complete domination and five games series is pretty lopsided as well. It should be noted that if the series goes to Game 7, it will be played in Miami.
I am not an expert on basketball, but looking at the patterns, my feeling is that the experts have done a pretty good job of understanding the Eastern Conference and a relatively poor job of understanding the Western Conference. Not one expert thought the Warriors would beat the Nuggets and then underestimated how well they would do against the Spurs. They thought the Clippers were better than the Grizzlies. Surprised the Spurs did not dominate the Warriors easily and underestimating the Grizzlies, they then thought the Spurs-Grizzlies matchup would be a tough struggle. The Spurs won in four.
Personally as a fan, I don't like the Miami Heat. They are the team that looks better on paper, talent in their prime vs. talent that is getting old. It might be that Heat coach Erik Spolestra is at the beginning of a brilliant career, but I'm not convinced he's better than Greg Popovich right now.
One advantage the Spurs have is the leisurely pace of the Finals, with games on Tuesday, Thursday and Sundays. The extra day of rest can help the older players.
Not just to be different, I'm going to predict the Spurs win the series on their home court in Game 5, four games to one. I make this prediction looking at the 2-3-2 schedule and the extra day of rest between games 1 and 2 and games 4 and 5, which should help the older players recover. I fully admit this prediction is nearly equal parts math and wishful thinking, but given the unimpressive record of conventional wisdom in the playoffs so far, I'm happy to go out on a limb with this one.
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