The special election to fill John Kerry's Senate seat in Massachusetts is today and Democrat Ed Markey has lead in the polls from day one. There have been a couple polls that showed a close race, but even in those Markey has been ahead, once by as little as a single percentage point. The four polls in the final week have had him ahead by 3%, 7% and twice at 10%. The Confidence of Victory of the median poll has never slipped under 95% for Markey.
There is always a first time, but in over 100 races where I have used the Confidence of Victory method, the favorite wins an overwhelming amount of the time and a favorite at over 90% is yet to lose. Voter turnout is always important and the method does not predict the margin of victory, just the victor. I'll be back tomorrow to give the results.
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