Four weeks of climate data: Antarctica recap

Instead of looking at the Antarctic Circle, I pushed the boundary out to 60° to encompass the entire continent and add nothing else.


Antarctica Region #1

My first hypothesis on the differences between the Arctic, which shows warming trends everywhere, and Antarctica, which is not cooling nearly as fast, was the discrepancy in the number of humans living there and the number of humans anywhere in the vicinity.

The more sensible theory (theories trump hypotheses) is the difference depends on how much land mass there is covered with ice vs. ocean, some of which has ice and some doesn't. Antarctica is all about the land mass while the Arctic is mainly about ocean.

Confidence of the region warming: 65.8%
Confidence of decreasing rate: 94.8%
Change in median temperature from the 1955-1975 interval to the 1999-2010 interval: 0.36° C


In short, we don't think the region is warming, the rate of warming looks to be slowing and the rise of .36 degrees Celsius is way below the planet average.


Lots of land mass covered with ice, not so much open sea.

Antarctica Region #2

Similar to Region #1, but it has a small ice shelf in that bay.

Confidence of the region warming: less than 50%
Confidence of increasing rate: less than 88%
Change in median temperature from the 1955-1975 interval to the 1999-2010 interval: -0.83° C


This region is cooling, though the trend is not convincing in either direction.

Antarctica Region #3

Confidence of the region warming: about 75%
Confidence of increasing rate: about 63%
Change in median temperature from the 1955-1975 interval to the 1999-2010 interval: 0.24° C

More water than the first two regions, but still not much sign of warming.

No need to link to Region #4. There weren't enough readings from 1955 to 2010 to make any valid judgments about what has happened over that time period. There are more readings over the past twenty years or so, but over the standard time period this blog is looking at we have a blank.

It's too bad because this is a region with very little land mass, a substantial ice shelf in the Ross Sea and plenty of open sea absorbing heat.

Antarctica Region #5

 
Confidence of the region warming:  99.98%
Confidence of increasing rate: about 89%
Change in median temperature from the 1955-1975 interval to the 1999-2010 interval: 1.95° C

The first region that really looks like serious warming. The land to ocean ratio isn't that much different from some of the regions on the other side of the continent, but the numbers are like night and day.

Antarctica Region #6

 
Confidence of the region warming:  99.999%
Confidence of increasing rate: about 97.9%
Change in median temperature from the 1955-1975 interval to the 1999-2010 interval: 3.39° C

This is the craziest warming region of anything we have seen so far. Whether the big blocks of ice breaking off will float north and melt, which could make a difference in sea level, or if they are pushed by currents to crash back into the continent is anybody's guess. In any case, scientists are keeping a close eye on this very volatile region.

Tomorrow, a recap of the Northern Temperate Zone, the most populated region on earth.