Wednesday, October 9, 2013

VA governor's race:
First October update

There are races in New Jersey for senator and governor this year, but I haven't reported on them because they haven't looked interesting. Democrat Cory Booker will likely become a senator with a double digit win and Republican Chris Christie appears to be cruising to re-election by a wide margin as well.

The governor's race in Virginia is a little closer, but according to my Confidence of Victory system, only a little. Here's the latest data.

Since late August, polling companies have been taking a major interest in the race between Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Ken Cucinnelli. Every week or so, two or more polls are released, so the data I present here are weekly medians of the Confidence of Victory numbers.

Advantage McAuliffe, if you haven't been paying attention.

Most news outlets that show polling data consider the percentage lead the most important information, but my system is based on the percentage lead of voters who have a preference. This I turn into a Confidence of Victory (CoV) number using very basic statistical methods. In mid August, McAuliffe's CoV numbers were over 98%, but they fell in mid-September to about 85%. Since then, they have climbed back to 96.8%. I haven't collected enough data to say that there really is much difference when someone gets a CoV over 90%. No one with that strong a lead at the end lost in the data I gather since 2004.

Notice the prepositional phrase "at the end". We aren't at the end yet, because the election is a month away. But as it stands currently, Cuccinelli needs something like the miracle Bill De Blasio got when Anthony Weiner went from front-runner to pariah/dick joke. Unless there are pictures of Terry McAuliffe's junk floating undetected around the Internet, Cuccinelli faces very long odds indeed.

More updates when there is more data.

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