Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Six weeks of climate data:
Northern Polar Region #3, 60° to 90° East

We are moving eastward around the Arctic Circle, now in the part of the Arctic Ocean known as the Kara Sea.

This region had over 5,000 quarterly readings from stations. That's not even half the readings made in Arctic Scandinavia, but a lot more than we will see from some of the Siberian stations. Notice that there are seven columns of dots. This means that there are grid points that are over the ocean that are getting regular readings.

The data from this region is not as strongly indicative of a steady warming trend as earlier regions, especially in this graph of the Winter months. The 1975 to 1988 interval contains both the warmest and coldest Winters from the past half century. The median shows a generally increasing pattern.

The Spring chart has more of the shape we identify with a warming region, the upward steps of the low and median temperatures of the intervals as we move forward in time.

Summer shows a huge jump from the first interval ending in 1975 and only modest changes since.

The Fall pattern has the earliest interval from 1955 to 1975 showing big fluctuation. The only one of the three trends showing warming is the median, which stayed relatively static until 1999 then made a jump of over 2 degrees Celsius, which is a significant change in median.

There were a total of 48 readings, 12 in each season. Intervals can finish 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th, and ties are possible.

Most warmest readings: 1999-2010 with 10, 1988-1999  and 1975-1988 with 1 each.
Most 2nd warmest readings: 1975-1988 with 6, 1999-2010 with 4, 1955-1975 and 1999-2010 with 1 each.
Most 3nd warmest readings: 1988-1999 with 6, 1975-1988 with 4, 1955-1975 and 1999-2010 with 1 each.
 Most coldest readings: 1955-1975 with 10, 1988-1999  and 1975-1988 with 1 each.

Is this region warming from interval to interval? No. The most recent is the warmest without question and the oldest interval is the coldest, but the two in the middle showed very little difference, with 1975-1988 arguably slightly warmer than 1988-1999.

Is the rate of warming increasing? Comparing the last interval to the rest, yes.

Later today, the Arctic region from 90° to 120° East.

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