Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Six weeks of climate data: Northern Polar Region #5, 120° to 150° East

 We move farther into the Siberian Arctic and the number readings drops yet again, but remains over 3,000.

The land mass is smaller and does not get very close to the North Pole. The readings come mostly from the eastern part of the mainland.

Winter does not show strong evidence of warming. While the lowest temperatures look to be on the upswing, both the warmest measurements and the median are bouncing up and down.

But as sometimes happens, we will have a one season anomaly and the rest of the data shows a warming trend in recent decades. The data shows the global cooling trend noted in the 1970s, but a one degree jump in the median in the era 1988-1999 and another one degree jump in the first decade of this century. The warmest Spring on record in this region was in the late 1980. The next three warmest were all in the 21st Century.

Again the cooling trend seen in the 1970s, followed by the warming in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. Again the pattern of a degree increase in the median temperature in both more recent time intervals.

Fall has a pattern distinct from all the other seasons in this region. The median bounces around, low in the first era, higher in the second, back down in the third, but a very large jump in all three categories, record high, median and highest low recorded. If Winter is the best argument that there isn't much warming in this region, Fall is the best argument that there is, with Spring and Summer backing up the warming trend hypothesis

There were a total of 48 readings, 12 in each season. Intervals can finish 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th, and ties are possible.

Most warmest readings: 1999-2010 with 7½, 1988-1999 with 4½.
Most 2nd warmest readings: 1988-1999 with 6, 1999-2010 with 4½ and 1975-1988 with 1½.
Most 3nd warmest readings: 1955-1975 leads with 9, the next two time periods have 1½ each.
 Most coldest readings: 1975-1988 with 9 and 1955-1975 with 3.

Is this region warming from interval to interval? No. The most recent is the warmest without question and 1988-1999 is in second, but the two at the beginning switched back and forth a lot. This is one of those regions that helped make the argument for global cooling in the 1970s.

Is the rate of warming increasing? Comparing the last interval to the rest, yes.

Later today, the Arctic region from 150° to 180° East, the last all Russian sector before we cross into the Western Hemisphere.

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