Here is the region nearest and dearest to my heart, Northern Temperate Region #8. I have lived in Northern California almost all my life - taught for a term in El Salvador, tried a semester at University of Miami (FL), so I'm interested in how the climate has changed here.
Of course, the biggest mass of land in this slice in north of the U.S.-Canada border, so this does not truly tell the story of my back yard.
As you can see, this region is covered almost completely wherever there is land mass, but they are a few gaps in the north in Canada near the Arctic Circle.
The story of warming here is a mixed bag. The lowest temperature metric is all uphill and rose by about two degrees since the 1950s, but the median rises by about a degree since the beginning and the record high happened over thirty years ago.
The Spring data shows warming in general, but only about a half degree in over fifty years in all three of our measurement systems.
Summer show a warming tendency, but once again the amount of warming is not impressive, about a half degree from start to finish.
Fall shows warming fairly steadily and strongly. Each of our three measurement systems show at least a degree and a half increase Celsius, the low temperature closer to two.
The data gives two pieces of information that might seem contradictory to some people.
1. We are 99.5% confident the region is warming.
2. We are 95% confident that the rate of warming is slowing down.
Remember that in most seasons, the amount of warming is small but relatively steady. Only the Fall increase gives us much call for alarm. But in many regions and by many ways of measuring, the big jump up happened early and later moves were not as steep upwards or may have even moved backwards.
Tomorrow, we cover regions #9 and #10, the bulk of the United States and Canada and northern Mexico.
Stay tuned.
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