A prediction about the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

The climate scientists Michael E. Mann, Michael Kozar and Sonya Miller have come out with a prediction for the number of named storms in the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane season, which officially starts on June 1 and ends November 30. Their number is 16 with a 95% confidence interval of +/-4, which means 12 to 20 is the range they are 95% confident will contain the correct number and 16 is what they consider the most likely number. I will come back on December 1 to see how the prediction turned out.

To give an idea of the recent range here are the number of named storms in the years from 2000 to 2012.

2000:15
2001:15
2002:12
2003:16
2004:15
2005:28
2006:10
2007:15
2008:16
2009: 9
2010:19
2011:19
2012:19

Their calculations are based on more data than this, but it should be noted that 16 is the average of these 13 numbers.