Tuesday, May 7, 2013

Results from South Carolina 01 House race.

The polls are closed in South Carolina and Mark Sanford is projected to be the winner by about a 10% margin. The last poll only put him up by 1%, but my system isn't designed to predict the margin of the win, only the direction.

Nate Silver on Twitter was not very confident because of the minimal amount of polling, but he did make Sanford a favorite at about 64% chance to win, which is pretty much what my system thought as well.

There is another special election to replace John Kerry in the Senate on June 25.  I'll keep track of the polls there and make periodic reports of the snapshots of the race, as well as a prediction on the morning of the 25th before the polls open.

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