Wednesday, May 29, 2013

Virginia governor's race:
McAuliffe(D) vs. Cuccinelli(R)
Update #2

Polling is still scarce on the governor's race in Virginia, which is as it should be since the election is in November. A new poll came out this week from Public Policy Polling showing a very similar pattern to the poll from mid-month from Quinnipiac.

In brief, the last two polls show a lead for the Democrat McAuliffe over the Republican Cuccinelli, right now at 42% to 37% compared to 43% to 38% earlier in the month. Both candidates have large negatives and about 20% of the public is not tuned in yet.

The first poll in May showed a lead for Cuccinelli. While the Confidence of Victory now shows a 92.8% chance for McAuliffe, that would only be true if the election were being held today, which obviously it isn't. More than that, if the election were right around the corner, I would not want to base my results on a single poll with 21% either undecided or voting for some other option. Unlike Nate Silver, I never talk about these early results as showing anything about what will happen in November. These are just early snapshots.

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