There are only a few elections this year, but I mean to cover the Senate and governor's races using the Confidence of Victory method, which takes polling data - percentages and size of sample - and turns it into probabilities of victory for both sides, or all three sides if a race has three truly competitive candidates, a rare occurrence in American politics.
In Massachusetts, there is a special election for the Senate seat vacated by John Kerry. It will be held on June 25.
Most recent poll: 7 May 2013
Polls taken within a week of the most recent: 4
Largest lead: 17% lead for Markey(D)
Smallest lead: 4% lead for Markey(D)
Confidence of Victory of the median poll: 97.4%
Markey has much greater name recognition than Gomez and Massachusetts is a generally blue state. The big lead is from the latest poll, but my system is interested in the median, not the most recent.
I do not think of this number as a prediction, but instead as a snapshot of the current position. I'll report back at least once a week on this race, more often if it looks like its getting closer and there is enough polling data to track changes at a faster pace.
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