Four weeks of climate data:Southern Temperate Region #6

The last region is the temperate section of the South Atlantic.

Just so we are clear, temperate islands are NOT tropical islands, and ten degrees of latitude can make a huge difference. It's cool in Tristan de Cunha and COLD in the South Georgia Islands.

A few years were taken out because only one island or the other was reporting. Taken together the Summer temperature jumped over a degree, which is definitely to be noticed.

On the other hand, the Fall median barely moved, though the record highs and lows did show a big jump.

In the Winter data, both the record high and median more of less flatline.

Spring shows increase in the high and median.

Confidence of the region warming:90.8%
Confidence of increasing rate: 79.2%
Change in median temperature from the 1955-1975 interval to the 1999-2010 interval: 0.46° C

We are not 95% confident the trend is warming here and the median composite rose less than a half degree Celsius in 56 years, which is not a serious cause for alarm.

This is the last region to look at in our Four Weeks of Climate Data, so now we will go into recap mode, looking at what regions are showing serious increases of more than a degree C from 1955-2010 and which ones are not warming as fast, starting with our six slices of the Arctic.

Four weeks of climate data: Southern Temperate Region #5

The fifth region of the Southern Temperate Zone is the last major land mass to be covered, as the last region which will be discussed later today is just two small islands in the south Atlantic.

As we can see, the actual land mass of Chile, Uruguay and Argentina is very well represented, as are a few islands both east and west.

The high temperature records haven't moved much in the Summer months, but the coldest Summers are getting warmer noticeably and the median has risen slightly.

Again, the record warmest in Fall is bouncing around, but the coldest Fall since the early 1970s has jumped up about a degree while the median is almost unchanged.

Winter gives us an idea of what data should look like if there was no overall trend.

Spring on the other hand shows upward movement in the low temperature measurement and two upward steps and one downward in the median and high measurement systems.

Confidence of the region warming: 97.7%
Confidence of decreasing rate: 88.5%
Change in median temperature from the 1955-1975 interval to the 1999-2010 interval: 0.15° C



There are important people in the history of statistics who were not in love with confidence tests, W. Edwards Deming being the best known. This data goes a long way towards proving Dr. Deming's point. We are confident of a warming trend because of 24 upward steps and 12 downward, and not quite confident of a slowing rate of warming because of 9 increasing steps and 15 decreasing steps.  More to the point, 0.15° C is really small for 56 years.

Later today, two little islands in the middle of the South Atlantic get their say, our last data points covering the globe.

Four weeks of climate data:Southern Temperate Region #4

Now we look at the temperate part of the South Pacific Ocean between New Zealand and South America.

Most of the famous South Pacific Islands are in the tropics. The best known of these islands are Easter Island, rightmost at (-105° long, -30° lat) and Pitcairn, where the Bounty mutineers settled, the second rightmost.

The low temperatures for Summer bounce around a lot, but the median shows steady increase.

Fall numbers show an increase at nearly every step.

Again, the low temperatures are bouncing around but the median grows steadily.

The cold Spring late last decade keeps this graph from showing steady increase everywhere.

Confidence of the region warming: 99.%
Confidence of decreasing rate: 65.8%
Change in median temperature from the 1955-1975 interval to the 1999-2010 interval: 0.45° C

We get a similar story to many of our regions. Yes, it's warming. No, we can't say if the rate is increasing or decreasing with any confidence and the amount of warming is in the range of a half degree Celsius in 56 years.


Tomorrow, our last two regions, Temperate South America and the temperate south Atlantic.

Four weeks of climate data: Southern Temperate Region #3

 And now we hit a big clump of land the the Southern Temperate Zone, Australia and New Zealand.

Unlike that one island in the south Indian Ocean, most of the land here is between the 25th and 45th parallels, which makes for more moderate weather in general.

All three of our measurement systems have two upward steps and one downward step. The increase in the median from the first era to the last is less than half a degree.

In the Fall, the general trend of increase is more noticeable, but the difference in medians from first to last is slightly less that the Summer change.

The increasing trend is more noticeable in the Winters and the median jump is over a half degree.

Spring is bouncing up and down more randomly than the other seasons, but the median shows a steady increase of about a half a degree.

Confidence of the region warming: 99.9%
Confidence of decreasing rate: 65.8%
Change in median temperature from the 1955-1975 interval to the 1999-2010 interval: 0.44° C

We get a similar story to many of our regions. Yes, it's warming. No, we can't say if the rate is increasing or decreasing with any confidence and the amount of warming is in the range of a half degree Celsius in 56 years.

Later today, the fourth region, the Pacific islands between New Zealand and South America.

Four weeks of climate data:Southern Temperate Region #2

 The second region of the Southern Temperate Zone is the Indian Ocean with a few scattered islands.

There were only readings from a few islands, and the only weather station that kept consistent readings from 1955 to 2010 was on the French controlled island Kerguelen.

As I said earlier, this "temperate zone" is cold. This is down in The Fifties and Summer average temperatures wander between 3° C to 7° C. For Americans, that's between 37.4° F and 44.6° F.

Cold. The coldest metric shows an increase, but the median and high show that the 90s were a little warmer than the first decade of this century.

 

The Fall numbers look similar to Summer, only more so, the 90s warmer that The Oughts.

Winter's pattern is different. Generally we see an increase across all metrics, but very little overall.

Spring is like Winter, but all the metrics show the big jump between the 1955-1975 era and the 1975-1988 period.

Confidence of the region warming: 99%
Confidence of decreasing rate: 97.9%
Change in median temperature from the 1955-1975 interval to the 1999-2010 interval: 0.55° C

One island in an expanse of ocean, but it counts as a region.  It's warming but the rate is slowing down and the level of warming over 56 years is not particularly alarming.

Tomorrow, Australia and New Zealand lumped together in the third region then the gap between New Zealand and South America as Region #4.

Four weeks of climate data:Southern Temperate Region #1

Instead of starting the Southern Temperate Region with a series of maps, let me just say how the split works in words.
Region #1. Southern Africa and Madagascar
Region #2: Southern Temperate Indian Ocean*
Region #3: Temperate Australia and New Zealand
Region #4: Southern Temperate Pacific Ocean*
Region #5: Temperate South America
Region #6: Southern Temperate Atlantic Ocean*

The asterisks on the oceanic section are because I didn't just use the polar region to look at Antarctic, but the 60th latitude instead so that no part of Antarctica would be ignored.  In my defense, the region south of the 60th latitude and north of the Antarctic Circle is famously cold, choppy and nasty with almost no land mass except the Antarctic Peninsula.
 

Southern Africa and Madagascar are pretty well covered. The grid point out in the middle of nowhere is probably Iles Crozet, a group of islands still administered by France.

Summers are getting warmer and the median and lowest temperature trends are getting increasingly warm each era.

Both the warmest and coldest records took a dip this century, but the median is getting warmer, more quickly at the turn of the century than previously. More than that, the median increase is more than a degree Celsius, a cause for alarm.

The Winter is steady but slow. Every step would be upward except that the record high is from the mid 1990s.

Almost perfect increasing trends everywhere except that the record in the 1980s was warmer that the record in the 1990s. Again, close to a degree increase in the medians.

Confidence of the region warming: 99.999%
Confidence of decreasing rate: 79.2%
Change in median temperature from the 1955-1975 interval to the 1999-2010 interval: 0.79° C

It's warming for sure, and at 0.79° C, it's warming faster that the region just to the north, which is Southern Tropical Africa. I don't consider 0.79° C a cause for alarm, but neither is it a cause for complacency.

Later this evening, the section of the Indian Ocean south of the Tropic of Capricorn and north of the 60th parallel.