U.S. vs. the Rest of the World: Climate change as measured from the 1988-1999 to 1999-2010 eras

Here's the map of consistent weather stations in the United States - with a few scattered in southern Canada - that reported at least one temperature every season from 1988 to 2010. If you go on comment boards around the Internet, there are people who post with confidence that global warming has stopped and the world has not gotten warmer since 1998.

The data shown here does not agree with that statement. I use the method of comparing two eras that start and end in strong La Niña years with a strong El Niño in between. I could switch and use strong El Niño years and the endpoints with a strong La Niña in between, but that would not bring us as close to present day as this method does.

What can be said is that the warming trend slowed down using this measurement system. Here are the numbers from the United States stations compared to the data from the rest of the world.

Total stations: 
U.S.A.: 3094
Rest of world 3363

Warming stations vs. cooling stations
U.S.A.: 71.5% warming, 28.5% cooling
Rest of world: 79.0% warming, 21.0% cooling

Average temperature change:
U.S.A.: 0.19° C
Rest of world: 0.29° C


This is still a warming trend, but not as fast as we saw comparing 1975-1988 to 1988-1999. If this continues, this would mean about a degree rise Celsius in the U.S.and a degree and half everyplace else. This is under the two degree per century threshold which climate scientists consider catastrophic.

Notice that the rest of the world has finally caught up and surpassed the United States in total consistent weather stations. A regularly reporting weather station is a useful thing, but not a vital part of the infrastructure. It's something of a luxury and back in 1955 the United States far outstripped the rest of the planet in being able to afford such luxuries, the aftereffects of World War II ten years earlier still being felt by the countries where the battles were fought.  As so many statistical measurements tell us, we are no longer number one in the world in quality of life.


Another number that jumps out at me is that no matter how many stations report in the United States and how many stations report every place else, the ratio of the temperature change stays relatively constant, the rest of the world warming a little more than 50% faster than the U.S. This could just be coincidence, but it would be interesting to find out why. If there is a cause other than random chance, it might mean the United States is doing something other countries could emulate to bring their warming trends down.

After several weeks work, I am convinced climate change is real. The simplest way to explain it is the planet is getting warmer in general, but certainly not at the same rate everywhere. Just looking at the temperatures does not give any answer to the question of whether mankind's actions have any effect on the increase we are seeing; that takes modeling and modeling such a complex system has to be inexact, even on the incredibly powerful computers we have in the 21st Century. But if there is a man-made cause for temperatures rising slower in the United States than everywhere else, it would be in our best interest financially and environmentally to export that cause to the rest of the world.

U.S. vs. the Rest of the World: Climate change as measured from the 1975-1988 to 1988-1999 eras

Yesterday, we looked at the eras 1955-1975 compared to 1975-1988. Moving forward, now we look at 1975-1988 compared to 1988-1999.

In the United States, the warming trend increased quite a bit compared to the earlier era differences. 80% of weather stations that reported every season showed a warming trend and the average increase was 0.3° C compared to 0.09° C, and this increase takes place over a shorter period of time.

Here are the numbers of the U.S. vs, the rest of the world.

Total stations: 
U.S.A.: 3534
Rest of world 3046

Warming stations vs. cooling stations
U.S.A.: 80.4% warming, 19.6% cooling
Rest of world: 86.2% warming, 13.8% cooling

Average temperature change:
U.S.A.: 0.30° C
Rest of world: 0.47° C


These changes are much more extreme than similar comparisons between the earlier eras reported yesterday. Climate scientists consider about two degrees Celsius in a century to be catastrophic warming. Since this is a twenty five year time span, the United States rate stretched to over a century would not be alarming, but the rest of the world would be.


Tomorrow, the 1988-1999 era compared to 1999-2010 era, a time when some global warming skeptics say the earth began cooling.

U.S. vs. the Rest of the World:Climate change as measured from the 1955-1975 to 1975-1988 eras

Unless I get a brilliant idea, I'm going to post three more climate data entries and then I will go back to other topics in math. Here are my reasons.

1. I am now convinced that anyone who talks about "global cooling" is a liar.
2. The data I work with can only verify if the general climate is warming, cooling or staying the same. I can't make any statement about human cause and distrust predictions about the future, even when they were done with mathematical modeling. Since the climate shows itself to be warming over so many regions, that is the only question of interest I can answer.
3. My hope was to become part of the conversation and to get people on both sides to agree on ways to discuss the data that does not involve cherry picking. If I magically gained some kind of influence, I think I could talk to climate scientists. Warming denialists are a completely different kettle of fish, and a right putrid one at that.

Here is the first data from my last idea, unless some brilliant clue strikes me. By using the consistent weather stations around the world that report every season between two La Niña peaks that have El Niño peaks between them, I can look at the worldwide data trends.  If I start in 1955, the United States has a huge advantage over the rest of the world. Having a consistently reporting weather station is a trifle in the developed world but a major cost in the undeveloped world. Even though World War II is ten years in the past and places like Canada, Australia and New Zealand come out as nearly unscathed as the U.S. does, the United States has more consistent weather stations than the rest of the world combined.  Here is how the two groups compare.

Total stations: 
U.S.A.: 3130
Rest of world 1938

Warming stations vs. cooling stations
U.S.A.: 60.9% warming, 39.1% cooling
Rest of world: 64.5% warming, 35.5% cooling

Average temperature change:
U.S.A.: 0.09° C
Rest of world: 0.14° C 

This time period shows warming and the differences between the U.S. and the rest of the world are significant. Neither would be catastrophic is continued for a century, a rise of a less than a half degree Celsius.

Tomorrow, we move forward to 1975-1988 compared to 1988-1999.