The not much election news to report.

My Internet crashed on the day of the reporting of the Massachusetts special Senate election. My prediction said Ed Markey looked like a prohibitive favorite and he won. The median poll said he was leading by seven to ten points, he won by ten.

The other two elections in the news are the governor's race in Virginia and the special Senate election in New Jersey. There hasn't been any news since the middle of July in Virginia, where McAuliffe is still leading in the median polls.

There is news from New Jersey, but it is of zero interest to those who want an exciting race. Newark mayor Cory Booker has a huge lead in the Democratic primary and former Bogota mayor Steve Lonegan looks to be a shoo-in in the Republican primary. In the general election, Booker has a massive lead as well, though there is a long time between now and the October 16 special election, strangely scheduled for a Wednesday.

Massachusetts Senate Race: Markey(D) vs. Gomez(R)Final election day update

The special election to fill John Kerry's Senate seat in Massachusetts is today and Democrat Ed Markey has lead in the polls from day one. There have been a couple polls that showed a close race, but even in those Markey has been ahead, once by as little as a single percentage point. The four polls in the final week have had him ahead by 3%, 7% and twice at 10%. The Confidence of Victory of the median poll has never slipped under 95% for Markey.

There is always a first time, but in over 100 races where I have used the Confidence of Victory method, the favorite wins an overwhelming amount of the time and a favorite at over 90% is yet to lose. Voter turnout is always important and the method does not predict the margin of victory, just the victor.  I'll be back tomorrow to give the results.

Massachusetts Senate Race: Markey(D) vs. Gomez(R) 17 June Update

New polls have been released since last Monday regarding the special Senate election to fill John Kerry's open seat in Massachusetts. On June 9, two polls were released giving Democrat Ed Markey a 7 point lead over Republican Gabriel Gomez. Two more recent polls show double digit leads, one by the Republican polling company Harper (49%-37% on 6/11) and the most recent by Boston Globe (54%-43% on 6/14).

We are eight days away from the polls closing and nearly no movement in Confidence of Victory numbers, now sitting at 97.5% for Markey. A week out it's hard to move the needle, especially given the increased popularity of voting by mail. Polling companies would like it if news organizations would add the phrase "if the election were held when the poll was taken" to any report on a poll, but with absentee ballots the election is effectively taking place now. I expect more polls this week and at least one more report on the race.

Massachusetts Senate Race:Markey(D) vs. Gomez(R)10 June Update

We are now about two weeks out from the special election to fill John Kerry's Senate seat in Massachusetts. Polling data had been scarce, but it's starting to pick up. Now that Suffolk has published their data from a poll that ended yesterday, we have five polls from 2 June to 9 June. Here is the list from newest to oldest. (The next newest poll not included is from 15 May and was conducted by Public Policy Polling [PPP], who also completed a poll on June 4. This poll would be excluded from the list either for being too old or for being done by a company already represented.)

9 June: Suffolk 48%-41% Markey n=500
Confidence of Victory 95.2%
5 June: McLaughlin[R] 45%-44% Markey n=400
Confidence of Victory 58.4%
4 June: YouGov 51%-40% Markey n=500
Confidence of Victory 99.5%
4 June: PPP[D] 47%-39% Markey n=560
Confidence of Victory 98.0%
2 June: New England College 52%-40% Markey n=500
Confidence of Victory 100.0%

The [R] and [D] behind McLaughlin and PPP respectively indicate that they are partisan companies and I include that out of a sense of fairness. I do not skew the data, I let all the pollsters have their say and take the median, which this week happens to be PPP at 98% CoV. McLaughlin is currently the lone outlier saying the race is close and even that poll does not give Gomez the lead.

Again, I consider these statements as snapshots of the situation instead of forecasts, but in general I would say Markey looks to be in the lead comfortably and Gomez has some small momentum which has to improve markedly for him to have a chance.

More updates as more polls come in.

Massachusetts Senate Race:Markey(D) vs. Gomez(R)Update #2

A new poll has been taken for the Massachusetts senate race and Democrat Ed Markey continues to lead. This poll was taken on May 15 and the most recent poll before this one was completed on the 7th, so using my seven day rule, this is the only poll being considered.

Most recent poll: 15 May 2013
Polls taken within a week of the most recent: 1
Lead: 7% lead for Markey(D)
Confidence of Victory of the median poll: 98.2%

I do prefer having a larger set of data on which to base a post, but I will remind readers that I consider these updates to be snapshots of an evolving situation rather than predictions of what will take place on election day. While this is "just one poll", the resulting Confidence of Victory numbers are much the same as we saw last week. I intend to have an update at least once a week until the election on June 25 if there are enough new polls to warrant such regular reports. I'm not sure how many polling companies will be working this race in May, but I fully expect multiple polls a week in June.

Massachusetts Senate race:Markey(D) vs. Gomez(R)

There are only a few elections this year, but I mean to cover the Senate and governor's races using the Confidence of Victory method, which takes polling data - percentages and size of sample - and turns it into probabilities of victory for both sides, or all three sides if a race has three truly competitive candidates, a rare occurrence in American politics.

In Massachusetts, there is a special election for the Senate seat vacated by John Kerry. It will be held on June 25.

Most recent poll: 7 May 2013
Polls taken within a week of the most recent: 4
Largest lead: 17% lead for Markey(D)
Smallest lead: 4% lead for Markey(D)
Confidence of Victory of the median poll: 97.4%

Markey has much greater name recognition than Gomez and Massachusetts is a generally blue state. The big lead is from the latest poll, but my system is interested in the median, not the most recent.

I do not think of this number as a prediction, but instead as a snapshot of the current position.  I'll report back at least once a week on this race, more often if it looks like its getting closer and there is enough polling data to track changes at a faster pace.