We are now about two weeks out from the special election to fill John Kerry's Senate seat in Massachusetts. Polling data had been scarce, but it's starting to pick up. Now that Suffolk has published their data from a poll that ended yesterday, we have five polls from 2 June to 9 June. Here is the list from newest to oldest. (The next newest poll not included is from 15 May and was conducted by Public Policy Polling [PPP], who also completed a poll on June 4. This poll would be excluded from the list either for being too old or for being done by a company already represented.)
9 June: Suffolk 48%-41% Markey n=500
Confidence of Victory 95.2%
5 June: McLaughlin[R] 45%-44% Markey n=400
Confidence of Victory 58.4%
4 June: YouGov 51%-40% Markey n=500
Confidence of Victory 99.5%
4 June: PPP[D] 47%-39% Markey n=560
Confidence of Victory 98.0%
2 June: New England College 52%-40% Markey n=500
Confidence of Victory 100.0%
The [R] and [D] behind McLaughlin and PPP respectively indicate that they are partisan companies and I include that out of a sense of fairness. I do not skew the data, I let all the pollsters have their say and take the median, which this week happens to be PPP at 98% CoV. McLaughlin is currently the lone outlier saying the race is close and even that poll does not give Gomez the lead.
Again, I consider these statements as snapshots of the situation instead of forecasts, but in general I would say Markey looks to be in the lead comfortably and Gomez has some small momentum which has to improve markedly for him to have a chance.
More updates as more polls come in.
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