Tuesday, May 28, 2013

2013 NBA Playoffs predictions:
Grade after the Spurs-Grizzlies series

The Western Conference final series is now over, concluded quickly as the San Antonio Spurs swept the Memphis Grizzlies in four games. No expert saw this coming exactly and the general consensus was that the teams were evenly matched and it would be a close series.

As of this series, there are ten people who have ventured an opinion on all thirteen series now completed. Unfortunately for the class average, the two best predictors so far, Tim Legler and Chad Ford, both neglected to give their opinions, so the overall quality of the predictions suffers mightily. When the entire playoff season is over, I'll show how everyone who made any predictions at all did.

Abbott: Grizzlies in 6 (0 of 10 points) 62.3% overall
Adande: Spurs in 7 (7 of 10 points) 68.5% overall
Arnovitz: Spurs in 7 (7 of 10 points) 69.2% overall
Barry: Grizzlies in 6 (0 of 10 points) 64.6% overall
Elhassan: Spurs in 7 (7 of 10 points) 71.5% overall
Gutierrez: Spurs in 7 (7 of 10 points) 65.4% overall
Haberstoh: Spurs in 7 (7 of 10 points) 73.1% overall
Pelton: Spurs in 7 (7 of 10 points) 69.2% overall
Stein: Grizzlies in 6 (0 of 10 points) 60.8% overall
Wallace: Spurs in 7 (7 of 10 points) 70.8% overall
Windhorst: Spurs in 6 (8 of 10 points) 65.4% overall

If we were putting letter grades on these numbers, the majority of the class would be failing. Legler and Ford would make the group look better with a B+ and a B grade, both with twelve predictions instead of thirteen, but this group has the star of the class Haberstroh with a C that is close to a C- and seven students in the D range. In the series that remains, everyone is predicting the Miami Heat to win, so they all could pick up some much needed points, but no one in this group can get to an 80% prediction rate over the entire fifteen series and some could dip below 60% if the Indiana Pacers get hot.

I don't do this to mock these people. I do this to show that prediction is usually very difficult and if there is a high degree of variability, even the best don't do very well.



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