Virginia's gubernatorial election doesn't take place until November, but we are getting early polling results. I do not consider these numbers a prediction of what will happen, but more like a snapshot of the current situation.
Most recent poll: 13 May 2013
Polls taken within a week of the most recent: 1
Lead: 5% lead for McAuliffe(D), 43% to 38%
Confidence of Victory: 97.7%
I don't consider polls taken this far in advance to be completely meaningless, but the phrase Confidence of Victory rings hollow right now, and I say that as the inventor of the phrase. It's all about the proviso "if the election were held when the poll was taken", and obviously, the election is not being held this week or even this month. More than that, a poll at the beginning of May gave Cuccinelli a commanding lead that would have given him a 99.7% Confidence of Victory.
Still, this is an important race and I will continue to cover it throughout the year.
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